I spent some time looking at poll’s in the house races and came up with some interesting conclusions. The main conclusion is that I don’t think the Democrats are going to take back either the House or the Senate. Now I’m not a big believer in these polls to be sure. Scott Rasmussen admitted on Hugh Hewitt’s show that the pollsters are basically modeling a higher democrat turnout in their polling because they assume that the democrats are going to be motivated and that republicans are going to stay home.

So personally, I believe that the polls are wrong. Horribly wrong in some places, mildly wrong in others. In general though, a few points off in favor of the democrats. I also think that some of these pollsters as they get closer to the election will begin correcting their models and you are going to see a “surge” by republicans. You are already seeing some movement in some polls, like Zogby showing Corker opening up by 7 over Ford and Talent, up by 3 in MO, Dewine closing to 4 Kean over Menedez etc etc. And lets not forget that big show stopper which is the poll showing Steele with all the momentum now neck and neck for the seat in Maryland.

But those are Senate seats and I’ll come to them in a little bit. Let me just restate that I think the polls are wrong. I think Republicans are under sampled. Despite this, you are seeing some movement in favor of republicans. But even if you assume that the polls are right, things are not so bleak for the republicans.

In the House I only see about 20 seats that are really up for grabs and two of those seats are currently democrat seats. So 18 seats that are up for grabs to turn over to Democrats. Of those seats the polls are showing 7 that are solidly turning democrat. That means that they need 8 more seats. That’s 8 seats of 11 available…plus they have to hold on to the two democrat seats up for grabs. That’s 10 seats out of 13 that have to go democrat. Now that’s certainly doable but it just strikes me as horribly unlikely.

For one thing, it is only now that the incumbent republicans are able to really campaign. Prior, they were in Washington dealing with the business of the nation. Now that they are able to return home and really campaign you will see movement in their favor. Additionally, it shouldn’t be underestimated that these are republican districts. The advantage for these toss ups needs to be given to the republicans.  Also, there are undecided voters in these races and they tend to break in favor of the incumbent. It’s known as the “Incumbent Rule”.

So, even assuming that the polls are correct, things are looking good for republicans holding on. The democrats have had a good string of fortune lately between the Foley scandal etc, but that is now old news and the momentum seems to be swinging back in favor of the republicans. It should be remembered that the momentum was all in their favor before the Foley scandal struck. Now as that fades I think the momentum will begin to pick up for them again. Add to that the fact that these incumbents are now returning to enter the campaign full swing and the “Incumbent Rule”, and I think it is all but impossible to conceive of the democrats succeeding in picking up 80% of the toss up races in currently republican seats. Add to that my own theory that the polls are wrong and it’s a done deal. The democrats don’t pull it off.

As for the Senate, even with pollsters weighting things in favor of a democrat turnout we have Dewine in a tossup, Burns closing in Montana, Talent up in Missouri, Corker in Tennessee, Kean up in New Jersey and as mentioned earlier Steele now tied in Maryland with all the momentum. I don’t care what anyone says Kennedy could win in Minnesota. It’s just impossible to know what’s going on because the most local polling organization is completely in the tank for the democrats. Even if the polls are correct, and I would remind you once more that I think that they are wrong and in some instances significantly wrong, the republicans currently would lose only 4 races and possibly pick up 2 with the Democrats losing an additional seat in Connecticut. So the Senate, with an election held today and the polls being correct, means at best for the democrats a two seat pick up and possibly only 1. The good news in the senate is that if the numbers aren’t right and favor the republicans more than are showing we have the possibility of coming out of this with a net pick up of 1 senate seat.

The bottom line here though is that even if I’m wrong and the polling data is dead on, it is highly unlikely that the democrats will take back either the House or the Senate. I think the next few weeks, barring some new October surprise, will make it even more improbable.